Using data to push back against Europe’s rising flood threat

ICEYE’s Anke Sielker reviews the evolving flood dynamic in Germany and explains why satellite data is becoming increasingly relevant in this fast-changing risk context.

As the waters recede following a series of severe flood events across central Europe, the (re)insurance industry faces both immediate and long-term challenges. Germany in particular has seen significant impacts, with recent floods linked to broader climate patterns identified by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). These patterns show that summer 2024 was marked by unusually warm temperatures and heavy precipitation, contributing to a year of increased flood risk.

A year of unpredictable weather in Germany

Germany experienced more than eight major flood events between August 2023 and August 2024, affecting multiple states. These events ranged from winter floods to intense summer downpours, demonstrating the heightened variability of weather patterns. ICEYE mapped extensive flooding across the country, providing insights into how these floods unfolded. ICEYE has mapped 7,380 km 2 of flood between December 2023 and August 2024 across many areas in Germany (as shown in figure 1).

According to the DWD, the summer of 2024 was one of the warmest on record, with a nationwide average temperature of 18°C, 0.9°C higher than the 1991-2020 average and 2.2°C above the 1961-1990 reference period. This made it the fifth-warmest summer in Germany since 1901. While August recorded the highest average temperature of 19.9°C, June and July also saw frequent spikes above 30°C, particularly in southern regions.

Despite these high temperatures, summer 2024 was characterised by changeable weather, with frequent thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain. June brought especially severe storms to southern Germany, leading to localised flooding.

The combination of warm temperatures and moisture-rich air fuelled these storms, creating conditions ripe for intense rainfall. The total summer precipitation was around 239.9 mm, aligning closely with historical averages but contributing to a season of heavy downpours rather than drought. The summer also saw 707.6 hours of sunshine – about 8 percent above the long-term average.

The June flooding: a key event in 2024

Among the notable events was the flooding in early June, triggered by heavy rains from Storm Orinoco. This storm swept through Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, leading to widespread flooding and the evacuation of thousands. The event highlighted the vulnerability of southern Germany’s river systems, which were overwhelmed by the sudden influx of water.

The German Insurance Association estimated that the insured losses from the June floods alone could reach €2bn. This event was part of a broader pattern of increased flood frequency in 2024 that included significant events earlier in the year, such as flooding in Lower Saxony and Saarland. These repeated incidents underscore the growing urgency for effective flood management strategies in the face of climate change.

The role of data in managing flood risks and immediate losses

As the risk of flooding increases, data plays a central role in helping (re)insurers understand and manage these challenges. Satellite data has become a vital tool in this effort, offering detailed insights into flood events. This data provides a precise understanding of the extent, frequency and intensity of floods, allowing insurers to respond quickly and make informed decisions.

Real-time satellite imagery enables insurers to assess the impact of a flood as it unfolds. Time-stamped data helps create an accurate picture of the flood’s progression, allowing insurers to evaluate which areas are most affected and to estimate potential losses. This capability is critical for managing capital, making timely decisions about reserve allocations and, ultimately, limiting losses.

By integrating detailed data into their loss estimation processes, insurers can better manage the uncertainties associated with large-scale flooding. This includes refining initial estimates to avoid the risks of over- or under-reserving, which can affect financial stability.

Preparing for the future: data-driven strategies

While immediate responses to floods are crucial, the (re)insurance industry must also plan for a future with potentially more frequent and severe flood events. With take-up rates of flood insurance coverage still below 50 percent in Germany, more capacity can be deployed. However, providing affordable policies is becoming a growing challenge. By using granular data from satellite imagery, insurers can refine their models to better prepare for future flood risks, enabling them to focus mitigation efforts where they are needed most.

The evolving flood dynamics in Europe, exemplified by the events of 2023-2024, demand a new approach to risk management. Providers are now offering comprehensive solutions that support insurers throughout the entire lifecycle of a flood event – before, during and after – using real-time satellite data to improve preparedness, optimise response, and accelerate recovery. By leveraging these tools, (re)insurers can respond swiftly to events, manage capital effectively, and build more resilient portfolios.

As ICEYE and other data providers continue to deliver detailed insights, the (re)insurance industry is becoming better equipped to handle the challenges of increasing flood threats. The focus on precise, real-time information will enable insurers to mitigate the impacts of flooding more effectively, ensuring that they can continue to provide reliable coverage even as the risks evolve.

Anke Sielker, head of reinsurance practice, head of insurance Europe and Middle East, ICEYE